Trump tariffs: A wake-up call for South Africa’s green economy

• US tariffs on SA imports could raise renewable project costs by 25%, shaking investor confidence and delaying clean energy infrastructure.
• Tariffs expose South Africa’s reliance on imports, but also create urgency to localise, innovate, and build energy independence.
• Amid disruption, new markets and local innovation offer huge potential—Africa alone could become a R200 billion clean tech market by 2035.

Last week’s announcement of a 30% reciprocal tariff on South African imports by the US sent shockwaves through global markets. Here at home, it’s shaking investor confidence and rattling supply chains.

Renewable energy is particularly exposed. But while short-term disruption is real, this moment may also be a turning point: one that compels South Africa to localise, innovate, and adapt for long-term resilience and strength.

South Africa’s clean energy growth has traditionally relied heavily on imported hardware. In 2024 alone, more than R17 billion worth of solar components were imported to our shores. Tariffs, a weakening rand, and trade instability could push project costs up by 25% in the short- to medium-term. Investment in infrastructure may be delayed. Risk will certainly increase. Momentum may well falter at a time that the energy transition can least afford it to.

Compounding matters is the fact that the US has withdrawn from the $9 billion Just Energy Transition Partnership, making project financing even more precarious.

Impact is not limited to renewables. Sectors like agriculture and automotive manufacturing face higher costs and reduced competitiveness. With energy and water already consuming nearly a third of commercial farm budgets, increased cost of imported equipment could hit profitability and jobs hard.

But there’s opportunity here too. Rather than being a death knell, this may very well be the jolt South Africa needs.

Our dependence on imported tech has always been a liability. President Trump’s tariffs expose this and create urgency, too. Government programmes like the SA Renewable Energy Masterplan target 15 000 new green jobs by 2030. We need to up the pace.

As US doors close, others remain open. Europe, Asia, and especially the rest of Africa offer growing demand for clean energy expertise: from solar installations to green hydrogen. Africa alone could become a R200 billion market in clean tech by 2035. South African companies must seize this opportunity to diversify and expand.

Constraint often drives creativity. With supply chains disrupted and margins squeezed, we may confidently expect a surge in smarter, more efficient home-grown solutions: from modular solar systems to water-saving technology. These (and innovations like them) won’t be mere stopgaps. They’re set to be the seeds of long-term sustainability.

This isn’t just about tariffs. It’s about how the solar sector responds. The sustainable energy industry will thrive through doubling down on localisation, innovation, and resilience: not in theory, but in practice, too. 

So although President Trump’s tariff decision is disruptive, it must also signal the end of complacency and the beginning of a new chapter for South Africa’s green economy. Companies now have every reason to cut reliance on imports, build local capacity, and take real steps toward energy sovereignty.

With the right mindset, South Africa’s future doesn’t just look greener, it also looks smarter, stronger, and far more resilient.

Avesh Padayachee is the CEO at Fibon Energy

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