Black Friday's Late Arrival Sparks Frenzied Holiday Shopping

Black Friday's late arrival on 29 November sets the stage for a uniquely condensed peak shopping season. With five fewer days until Christmas compared to the November 25 and 24 dates of the past two years, the question remains: how will this impact retail sales performance?

Ulana van Biljon, Chief Operating Officer of Emira Property Fund, shares key insights into the 2024 festive season and the retail outlook for 2025.

• Shortened Shopping Season & Consumer Confidence: With fewer shopping days between Black Friday and Christmas, consumers are feeling more confident, potentially leading to larger spending baskets despite the tight timeline.

• Retailers Adapt with Extended Promotions: Retailers like Game and Makro are launching month-long Black Friday campaigns, giving consumers more time to evaluate deals and make secure purchasing decisions.

• Interest Rate Cuts & Disposable Income: A 25bps interest rate cut boosts disposable income, encouraging festive spending, with wage increases and bonuses further supporting consumers’ purchasing power.

Key Highlights of the 2024 Festive Season Retail Outlook:

Shortened Shopping Season

Black Friday 2024 falls late (29 November), leaving just four weeks until Christmas—five fewer days than previous years. While this compression could dampen sales, consumer confidence is up, potentially offsetting the shortened timeframe.

Improved Consumer Confidence

Positive factors like a stabilising currency, improved inflation, a second interest rate cut, and the suspension of load shedding are boosting consumer spending power. Wage increases and year-end bonuses are also expected to enhance disposable income, contributing to a more optimistic holiday shopping outlook.

Retailer Adaptation

Retailers, such as Game, Makro, and Builders, have adjusted by launching extended Black Friday promotions from early November, offering consumers more time to evaluate deals. This strategy could reduce the urgency of decision-making while providing ample opportunity for consumers to find value.

Impact of Interest Rates and Disposable Income. The latest 25bps interest rate cut has put more money in consumers' pockets, with interest rates 50bps lower than last year. This, combined with wage increases, is expected to spur more discretionary spending during the holiday season.

The Two-Pot Retirement System’s Effect

Early withdrawals from the Two-Pot Retirement System are helping ease financial pressures, with consumers using some of their payouts for retail spending, especially in areas like debt repayment and education.

Focus on Essentials

Despite optimism, many consumers remain cautious and are prioritising essentials. Retailers, like Emira, are enhancing their offerings to provide integrated, all-in-one shopping experiences that cater to these practical needs while maintaining an enjoyable shopping environment.

Buy-Now-Pay-Later (BNPL) Trends

BNPL options like Pay Just Now and Payflex are expected to gain popularity as consumers opt for interest-free, flexible payment plans. These options are especially appealing to budget-conscious shoppers.

The Role of Social Media

Social platforms, particularly TikTok, Facebook, and Instagram, continue to drive consumer purchasing decisions. Influencers have become key drivers of trends, with retailers leveraging these channels to reach new audiences and showcase popular products.

Seamless Shopping Experiences

With the shorter season, the emphasis is on providing seamless, frictionless shopping experiences. Shoppers, often armed with prior online research, still value the in-store experience. Retailers and shopping centres need to ensure their services are efficient and customer-centric.

All-in-One Shopping Centres

Retail centres, such as Emira’s Wonderpark in Pretoria, are expanding their entertainment offerings to enhance the shopping experience. New leisure options, like Goldrush and revamped play areas, are designed to attract longer visits and improve overall customer satisfaction.

January Boost

The condensed festive season could lead to a sales surge in January. Gift cards, increasingly popular as holiday presents, will likely see high redemption rates, giving retailers a post-holiday boost. Additionally, the back-to-school rush in January may result in increased retail activity.

Retailers face intense pressure to maximise sales during the condensed season. Shopping centres that offer integrated experiences, trending products, flexible payment options, and exceptional customer service will be best positioned to capitalise on the improved consumer sentiment and heightened demand.

In conclusion, while the 2024 festive shopping season presents challenges due to its compressed timeframe, the increase in consumer confidence, retailer adaptability, and focus on seamless experiences should drive a successful retail period. Retailers and shopping centres that can balance efficiency, convenience, and customer experience will stand out in this competitive environment.